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The word is out there and strong in the land of the rising sun; the Chinese are buying everything they can get their hands on.

With China’s rise this year to become the No. 2 economy, displacing Japan who had strongly held that position after the United States since 1968, along came with it the fear-laced hope that China can save Japan from the doldrums of deflation and faltering asset prices.

For an investor outside East Asia, it is easy to set the cross-hairs on China amidst all the hoopla about a rising economy, a red hot real estate market and sky-rocketing GDP figures. Where does that leave Japan? According to the mass media, lost in the Gobi apparently.

However, upon closer look, this might not be the case. Despite being the No. 3 economy, Japan is still seen by investors as the most stable East Asian economy to invest in. What most investors are doing is using Japan as a risk hedge against the potential (and some say inevitable) wild gyrations that could plague the current Chinese economy.

When talking to agents in Tokyo, everyone seems to be firmly seated on the bandwagon labelled “China”. Agents pine on about how they wish they could do more business with China but can’t figure out how. Advertising Japanese property in Chinese publications won’t do any good, they say, as the agency cannot handle a Chinese inquiry. This leaves our starry-eyed agents left wringing their hands with slumped shoulders uttering “Do-Shio” (meaning: What should I do?)

If you stop and think about it for a second, China might not be all that it’s cracked up to be.

First; bandwagons in general. If one exists and everyone is jumping on it, it’s too late. You’ve missed your chance at winning big. In China’s case, sure you might score a couple of deals here and there, but you won’t score big the way you are expecting if the bandwagon is already crowded with a line of people anxiously waiting for someone to fall off. When a bandwagon gets a certain amount of momentum, the only way it can stop is by crashing hard with everyone on it. This is a fact of life.

Second and more specifically; the Chinese government announced last week that all loans for property developers will be suspended in an effort to cool the overheated real estate market. A November 19^th article by the Daily Yomiuri illustrates why. Developers have been buying up cheap land wholesale in an effort to drive up prices by reducing supply. These developer’s refusal to sell is taking a large part in the bubble creation mechanisms found in the current Chinese real estate market.

Third; I have heard from agents on the ground in Tokyo who have been to China scoping out developments being flogged as genuine. In many cases I have heard the same story; marketing material about the development heralding great returns that can be made by investing in the project.  These materials explain that tenants, the likes of Louis Vitton, Prada, Gucci et al have signed long-term leasing contracts to show their wares in this sparkling new facility.

When Japanese agents go to China to see these wonder developments, they are indeed tangible brick and mortar. However, the rent roll is shorter and much less glamorous than advertised in the investment materials. One Japanese agent I know went to a 200 unit shopping center to find only one tenant; ironically it was a Chinese restaurant.

The Chinese government see the lemming investment mentality combined with domestic land gobbling practices and is working hard to fight against it. China is well aware it is still a fledging capitalist economy. The government’s current actions illustrate they are trying to head off the obvious bubbles that threaten the path to prosperity. However, as is the history of any bubble, be it real estate or technology, by the time the government realizes what they are dealing with, it is usually too late. The bubble is too far gone to control and must be ridden out to the end.

This spells a lot of uncertain times ahead in the near future for China which is where Japan steps in. Japan still offers 7-8% gross returns as the norm. Japan, having gone through bubbles and crises in the past, has the experience to keep itself stable despite turmoil in the market place. If you are looking to win big in the Wild East, then make sure you shore up your base in Japan. Only then head into the rougher (but potentially more rewarding waters) of China.

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